Florida’s consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in January by five points to 74, possibly a sign of post-holiday relief, according to a new University of Florida survey.
“The sharp rise was somewhat of a surprise,” says Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “In the past, we have seen similar jumps in the January index, perhaps in response to the financial stress associated with the holidays and the economic turbulence of the past year.”
This month’s increase in consumer confidence was broad-based across age and income levels, pushing the index to its highest level in more than two years.
All five components making up the index increased. The biggest jump was in perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items, which rose eight points to 83. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago increased five points to 50, while expectations of personal finances a year from now rose five points to 85. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose six points to 73, while perceptions of U.S. business conditions over the next five years rose four points to 78.
“On the positive side, the stock market seems to have held onto the big increase from 2009, and housing prices, though down at the end of the year, seem at least temporarily stable,” McCarty says.
However, housing stability could be threatened by any continued rise in unemployment, McCarty says. The Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation released December unemployment figures on Friday, which shows that the unemployment rate increased to 11.8 percent, up .3 percent from November’s 11.5 percent.
“We believe that once we have collected an extra week’s worth of data (up to the end of the month), consumer confidence will edge downward,” McCarty says. “These data do not reflect the negative employment report released Friday.”
The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for January was 424 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.
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